EURUSD steady before ECB, focus shifts to NFP

• ECB’s 25bp rate cut widely expected by the market
• ECB’s Press Conference is in focus
• Bullish techs: RSI 56.4, MACD stays positive
• Key support 1.1285, target breakout 1.1450

EURUSD currency pair is consolidating around 1.13952 as investors brace for the European Central Bank’s June rate decision.

Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut, following softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation (1.9% YoY in May).

Latest ECB minutes and remarks suggest policymakers may be nearing the end of their easing cycle, though they remain cautious amid global trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg, the markets imply 1 more rate cut until the year end.

However, the OECD’s downgraded global growth outlook and the threat of higher US tariffs further complicate the picture.

While the ECB is likely to cut rates during the upcoming meeting, some market participants do not expect firm guidance on future moves, amid inflation risks related to ongoing trade disputes.

With this decision widely anticipated, EURUSD may remain range-bound, with limited reaction to the meeting itself.

Instead, traders are turning their attention to US economic data and broader geopolitical developments as the next major catalysts for the pair.

Important Upcoming Events:

Thursday, June 5 @12:15 p.m. UTC: ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference

Friday, June 6 @12:30 p.m. UTC: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data 

Technicals

EURUSD is trading at 1.13854, showing resilience above key moving averages: the 21-day MA (1.1285), 50-day MA (1.1233), and well above the 100-day MA (1.0895).

This bullish structure suggests upward momentum remains intact, with the RSI at 56.4 indicating moderate strength without overbought conditions.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish bias, as the MACD line (0.00458) remains above the signal line (0.00389), hinting at continued upside potential.

A sustained break above the recent high of 1.1404 could open the door toward 1.1450, while support lies around 1.1285 on pullbacks.