XAUUSD & BRN volatile amid geopolitical turmoil

·        Gold tests 21-day moving average support

·        Fed policy risks keep markets on edge

·        Brent slips below $77 on Iran tensions ease

·        Middle East risks still support oil prices

·        Supply fears may drive oil to $100+

Gold prices are on edge as market participants weigh shifting dynamics in the Middle East and persistent ambiguity around US monetary policy.

Spot gold is poised for a weekly decline, under pressure from waning safe haven demand. Prices are once again testing the 21-day moving average – a key technical support level in recent weeks. A decisive break below could expose the 50-day moving average as the next line of defense.

Despite short-term weakness, gold bulls retain several supportive pillars. Ongoing central bank purchases and unresolved geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, provide a firm backdrop for gold’s longer-term appeal.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments underscored the enduring risks clouding the monetary policy outlook, adding another layer of caution to already jittery markets.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has slipped below $77 per barrel after nearing its highest levels since January.

The pullback follows signs that former US President Donald Trump is in no rush to escalate conflict with Iran, momentarily easing geopolitical risk premiums. Still, the broader Middle East conflict continues to loom large, keeping supply-side concerns firmly on the radar.

Volatility is expected to persist in oil markets, with the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transit route, remaining a key flashpoint. Any substantial disruption there could quickly propel prices toward triple-digit territory, reinforcing the geopolitical sensitivity of oil benchmarks.

Both gold and Brent are caught in a web of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, and while short-term pressures exist, the broader risk environment remains supportive for both commodities.