Nvidia Earnings: Will the US500 and NAS100 react?

• Nvidia earnings may shake US500 and NAS100
• Stock up 58.6% since April lows, breaking downtrend
• Expected $43.3B revenue, growth rate may slow down
• US-China tensions may cost Nvidia $15B
• Options suggest 6.8% stock swing post-report

The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is poised to send ripples across the broader U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (NAS100), where the company holds significant weight.

The release, scheduled for after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, May 28, is expected to trigger heightened volatility.

Nvidia Stock: A Remarkable Comeback

Since its intraday low on April 7, Nvidia shares have soared by 58.6%, erasing year-to-date losses that once reached -35.5%.

As of May 27, the stock is up 0.9% YTD, having broken out of a multi-month downtrend that persisted from January through early May.

Market Expectations for Q1 FY2026

Nvidia is forecasted to post record revenue of $43.3 billion, with a 66.3% YoY growth—its slowest pace in two years. Analysts also anticipate:

• Net income of $23.17 billion
• Net margin of 53.5%—the lowest since Q3 FY2024
• Earnings per share (EPS) at $0.88, reflecting 43% YoY growth—the weakest since April 2023

Despite headline-breaking revenue and profit figures, investor focus is shifting toward the rate of growth, which appears to be decelerating.

This is raising concerns across the market, particularly in the context of sustained AI hype.

Geopolitical Headwinds: China and H20 Chips

Trump-era trade restrictions are already impacting Nvidia’s performance in China.

The company is expected to write off $5.5 billion this quarter due to reduced shipments of its H20 chips, with potential full-year revenue losses of up to $15 billion.

Still, Nvidia is betting big on its next-gen Blackwell chips, which have seen strong demand – particularly as the U.S. pushes AI infrastructure deals in the Middle East.

However, questions remain: Can Nvidia re-enter the Chinese market with alternative products in H2 2025? CEO Jensen Huang estimates the Chinese AI market could be worth $50 billion in 2026.

Market Reaction on May 29: What to Expect?

Options markets imply a 6.8% post-earnings move in Nvidia stock.

Two main potential scenarios are in play:

• Bullish case: Strong results and a reduction in geopolitical fears could send the stock above $144, its highest level since January.
• Bearish case: Weak figures or cautious forward guidance could trigger a pullback to $126, possibly pushing the stock back into negative territory YTD.

With Nvidia valued at $3.3 trillion, its earnings are more than just a company event—they're a global barometer for the future of AI. Any surprise, positive or negative, is likely to reverberate across the US500 and NAS100, influencing market sentiment well beyond tech.