Middle East tensions shake markets

Geopolitical risk drives demand for safe havens like gold and silver
Brent crude poised to surge if conflict impacts oil supply routes
Gold could test $3,400–$3,500 amid sustained fear-driven flows
Silver may rally to decade highs or correct based on sentiment shifts
Packed economic calendar includes Fed speeches, PMIs, and PCE data

Escalating tension in the Middle East has once again reignited a risk-off tone across global markets. With uncertainty simmering, investors are shifting towards defensive assets and energy commodities amid fears of broader disruption.

The current geopolitical spotlight is dominating price action, offering both opportunities and challenges for traders in Brent crude (BRN), gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD). As conflict concerns persist, volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Events Watchlist:

Brent Oil – BRN

Brent remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. A spike in tensions that threatens shipping lanes or infrastructure could potentially lift Brent higher toward the $80/bbl. On the flip side, signs of de-escalation could lead to a pullback into the $70–$75 region.

Gold – XAUUSD

Gold is proving its safe-haven status amid rising geopolitical risk. Sustained fear-driven flows could push XAUUSD toward the $3,400–$3,500 area. However, if tensions ease, gold may retrace toward 50 – 100-day SMA. Potentially higher intraday volatility driven by geopolitical news headlines is to be expected.

Silver – XAGUSD

Silver remains highly responsive to shifting market sentiment. In the event of heightened geopolitical escalation, XAGUSD could potentially rally toward its recent high (~37.3 – highest level since 2012). However, if tensions ease and broader sentiment stabilizes, a correction to 21-day SMA may potentially follow.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday June 23 2025

JP225: Japan June PMIs
SG20: Singapore May Inflation
EU50: Eurozone June PMIs, Bond Auctions
UK100: UK June PMIs
US500: June PMIs, May Existing Home Sales; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, NY Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Kugler – Speeches

Tuesday June 24 2025

NZ: New Zealand May Balance of Trade
JP225: BoJ Summary of Opinions, 20-Year JGB Auction
CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
GER40: Germany June Ifo Business Climate
UK100: UK 10-Year Index-linked Gilt Auction, BoE Governor Bailey testifies before Upper House
CA: Canada May Inflation Rate YoY
US500: US June 20 API Crude Oil Stock Change, Fed Chair Powell testifies before House
“Summer Davos” meeting, through June 26, Chinese Premier Li Qiang – Speech

Wednesday June 25 2025

JP225: Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e June 21, Stock Investment by Foreigners w/e June 21
CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
AU200: Australia May Monthly CPI Indicator
FRA40: France June Consumer Confidence
UK100: UK 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
SPN35: Spain May PPI
US500: US May New Home Sales
WTI: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change w/e June 20

Thursday June 26 2025

JP225: Japan June Tokyo CPI, May Retail Sales, May Unemployment Rate
CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
EU50: ECB General Council Meeting, June Economic Sentiment Index
GER40: Germany July GfK Consumer Confidence
US500: May Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims w/e June 20, Richmond Fed President Barkin and Cleveland Fed President Hammack – Speeches
MX: Mexico Interest Rate Decision
NG: EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change w/e June 20

Friday June 27 2025

CN50: CN May Industrial Profits (YTD)
EU50: June Economic, Industrial and Services Sentiment, Consumer Inflation Expectations
FRA40: France June Inflation Rate, May PPI
SPN35: Spain June Inflation Rate, May Retail Sales
US500: May PCE Price Index, Cleveland Fed President Hammack – Speech, Annual Bank Stress Test Results
CA: Canada April GDP
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count w/e June 27

Sunday June 29 2025

JP225: Japan May Industrial Production

BrentXAUUSDGoldXAGUSDSilver