Week Ahead: ECB Decision, Eurozone CPI, US NFP

• ECB rate call may shift EU50
• Eurozone CPI key for GER40 trend reversal
• US NFP sets tone for EURUSD break or bounce
• Geopolitical risks drive cross-asset moves
• Diverging policies keep markets hypersensitive

This week’s economic data from both sides of the Atlantic, along with the ECB’s rate decision, will guide European markets. Expect volatility across EURUSD, GER40, and EU50 as traders react to inflation print, policy signals, and shifting risk sentiment.

Ongoing trade tensions and diverging central bank paths heighten sensitivity to external shocks, making geopolitical risks and cross-asset moves key drivers in the days ahead. Careful positioning will be essential in navigating the uncertain macro landscape.

Events Watchlist:

Tuesday, June 3rd: European inflation – GER40 Index

Eurozone inflation data will be in focus for its impact on ECB policy expectations. A hotter print could boost the euro and pressure export-heavy German stocks, potentially dragging the GER40 below its 21-day SMA. Conversely, a softer reading may lift the index towards new highs.

Thursday, June 5th: ECB Interest rate decision – EU50 Index

All eyes will be on the ECB’s interest rate decision and forward guidance. A dovish tone may propel the EU50 Index above 5,470 level, while any hints of policy uncertainty could weigh on sentiment, potentially pulling the index toward 100-day SMA.

Friday, June 6th: US Non-farm payrolls – EURUSD

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report could set the tone for EURUSD currency pair. A strong print may strengthen the dollar, pushing the pair toward the lower end of Bloomberg’s 7-day projected range (1.1235–1.1539; 73.6% probability). However, softer data, could support the EUR, potentially pushing EURUSD towards 1.1420.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:

Monday, June 2

• CHF: Swiss April Retail Sales, Q1 GDP, May Manufacturing PMI
• SPN35: Spain May HCOB Manufacturing PMI
• CAD: Canada May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• USDInd: US May Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan Speeches
• MXN: Mexico May Business Confidence
• Russia-Ukraine Talks

Tuesday, June 3

• AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes
• CHINAH: China May Manufacturing PMI
• CHF: Swiss May Inflation Rate
• SPN35: Spain May Unemployment Change
• EUR: Euro Area May Inflation Rate; April Unemployment Rate
• US400: US April JOLTs Job Openings; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan Speeches

Wednesday, June 4

• AUD: Australia GDP Reading
• SPN35: Spain May Services PMI
• USD: US May Services PMI, Employment Change, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speeches
• CAD: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
• WTI: Crude & Gasoline Stock Changes

Thursday, June 5

• CNY: China May Caixin Services PMI
• GER40: Germany April Factory Orders
• MXN: Mexico May Consumer Confidence
• EU50: Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision
• CAD: Canada April Balance of Trade
• US500: US April Balance of Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and Philadelphia President Fed President Speeches
• Broadcom Earnings

Friday, June 6

• JP225: Japan April Household Spending
• GER40: Germany April Industrial Production
• EUR: Euro Area April Retail Sales
• USDInd: US May Non-Farm Payrolls