Brent in the crosshairs: breakout or breakdown ahead?

• Brent is down 14% YTD amid market uncertainty
• US–Iran talks may raise supply, Israel risk adds heat
• OPEC eyes 411k bpd output hike, decision due June 1
• Technicals weak: RSI 45, MACD bearish

Did you know that Brent oil prices have fallen 14.7% year-to-date?

After hitting multi-year lows in April, BRN staged a moderate rebound, yet the market remains in a precarious balance of geopolitical risks and fundamental shifts.

Geopolitical Risks Heating Up

The spotlight is on the ongoing US–Iran nuclear negotiations, which could eventually allow Iranian crude back into the global supply chain – a move that would likely weigh on prices.

However, this scenario remains uncertain, especially with reports of possible Israel–Iran escalation. Such a development would raise geopolitical risk premiums and potentially ignite a spike in prices.

OPEC in Focus: Supply Shift Incoming?

Meanwhile, OPEC is back in the headlines. Sources suggest the cartel is considering a sizable output hike of 411,000 barrels/day for July 2025 – triple the initial proposal of 137,000 bpd.

This decision may be taken during June 1 meeting and could reshape short-term supply dynamics and price xpectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical lens, BRN is showing a bearish trend as the price remains at the 21-day, but below both 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. This alignment confirms sustained downward pressure.

The RSI at 45.34 indicates weak momentum, and the MACD remains below the signal line, suggesting continued bearish sentiment.